Sugarcane

GVP $91 million est. Up 4% year-on-year
Tonnes of cane crushed up 25% to 1.51 million tonnes in 2024-25
Global benchmark sugar prices down 15% over 2024-25

The 2024 cane season saw a 25% increase in NSW production, with over 1.51 million tonnes crushed, despite ongoing challenges from previous flooding and dry conditions. Challenging harvesting conditions experienced during parts of the 2024 harvest across the three NSW growing valleys also contributed to the lower total area harvested. While national average returns to growers fell, NSW growers faced lower production potential and higher costs due the flooding events. Global sugar prices have eased due to increased supply and stagnant consumption, which is expected to keep benchmark prices capped in the near to medium term. Overall NSW sugar GVP is estimated at $91 million, a 4% year-on-year increase.

Production

The 2024 cane season resulted in just over 1.51 million tonnes of cane crushed, a 25% increase over the previous season. The residual impact from several disrupted seasons - ranging from flooding events to prolonged dry spells in the region - meant the tonnage crushed was 14% below the 5-year average to 2021.³² This compounding impact and further wet harvesting conditions experienced during stages of the 2024 harvest, resulted in a lower area harvested across the three valleys. The total area harvested in the 2024 season was down 13% on the 5-year average, totalling 11,857 hectares (Clarence Valley: 4,186 ha, Richmond Valley: 4,146 ha and Tweed Valley: 3,525 ha).⁵⁷³²¹⁶⁵

Countering the lower total area harvested, cane tonnage per hectare increased by 30% in 2024 compared to the previous year, averaging 128 tonnes of cane crushed per hectare.³² There was an early finish to harvesting in 2023 with the Clarence Valley completing its harvest in early November 2023, this allowed crops to benefit from solid summer growth leading into the 2024 harvest season. The Clarence Valley saw 1-year-old cane yield increase by 68% over the prior year, from 73 t/ha (2023) to 123 t/ha (2024). For 2-year old cane the yields increased from 105 t/ha to 150 t/ha between 2023 and 2024 respectively.⁵⁷

NSW area harvested & sugar production

Area harvested
Sugar produced (RHS)

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Source: ASM (2025)

Northern Rivers mill crush shares

Harwood
Broadwater
Condong
4 Year Average Level

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Source: Sunshine Sugar (2025) , Sunshine Sugar (2021) , Sunshine Sugar (2023) , ABARES (2025) , Sunshine Sugar (2023)

Price

Reflecting the global market, national returns to canegrowers declined from an estimated average $72 per tonne in 2023-24 to $60 per tonne in 2024-25 (ABARES 2025). For NSW growers indicative cane prices were lower for the 2024 season with an average reported price of $55 per tonne, down from $60 reported for 2023. However, this was still 49% above the five-year average price received to 2022, however businesses have been impacted by lower production and increasing costs.⁵⁷

Global benchmark sugar prices have declined over 2024-25 with the US sugar futures price down 15% over the period to June 2025. However, the price decline in Australian dollar terms was buffered by a lower AUD/USD exchange rate, with prices down by 13% over the 12-month period to June 2025. Over the recent price cycle, global benchmark sugar prices in US dollar terms decreased by 41% to June 2025 from the peak achieved in November 2023.¹⁷⁷¹⁴⁷

Global net production and benchmark sugar price

US Sugar #11 Futures
Sugar Net Production (RHS)

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Source: USDA (various issues) , Investing.com (2025)

Trade and Macroeconomic Conditions

Farmer using drip torch to ignite sugar cane fire.

The NSW sugar industry is primarily focused on domestic supply. Exports of cane sugar and sucrose (solid form) totalled $4.2 million in 2024-25, with New Zealand the major market, accounting for $2.4 million of raw sugar or 58% of total sugar exports. The value of sugar exports, in solid form has more than doubled over the past five years.¹⁵⁵

The reduction in international sugar prices over the 2024-25 year was largely driven by increased supply from major producing countries, combined with flat or easing global consumption which was 0.5% lower year-on-year, after several years of rising consumption.¹⁷⁷ Global sugar production rose by 3% in 2024-25 over the prior year reaching a total 180 million tonnes. Brazil remained the dominant global sugar producer and exporter, with production up 6.6% in 2024-25 and accounting for 24% of global production. Brazilian production was supported by an increase in the area planted to cane in the 2024-25 season, up 4% on 2023-24, while the sugar to ethanol mix remained at 49% sugar.¹⁷⁷¹⁷⁸

Improved seasonal conditions in Thailand and the utilisation of its sugar stocks contributed to a doubling of exports from Thailand in 2024-25 compared to the prior year, reaching an estimated 10 million tonnes. At the same time, China, a major producer and importer, increased its domestic production by an estimated 10% in 2024-25 over 2023-24. Prevailing global prices during 2024-25 were also negatively impacted by the Indian Government’s announcement of a partial lifting of its sugar export ban in January 2025. The ban, implemented in 2023, aimed to manage supply and prices for Indian domestic consumers.⁸³¹⁷⁷

Outlook

Global sugar production is expected to increase in 2025-26 with synchronised production improvements across several of the largest sugar-producing nations including Brazil, India and Thailand. These increases are anticipated to more than offset forecast declines in European Union beet production.

Brazilian production is expected to reach a record of over 44 million tonnes although its production remains dependent partly on the country’s sugar/ethanol mix. At the same time, Indian output in 2025-26 marketing year is expected to exceed 35 million tonnes, up 26% from the prior year, given improved growing conditions and the increased sugarcane cultivation area as farmers responded to improved prices.¹⁷⁷¹⁰² Global production is forecast to reach 189 million tonnes in 2025-26 marketing year, 4% higher than the prior year. At the same time, global consumption is anticipated to increase by 1.4% in 2025-26. Ultimately, global ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast to grow 7.5% year-on-year.¹⁷⁷ Assuming favourable growing conditions and improved stocks, the outlook for increased sugar supply is expected to cap benchmark sugar prices in the near and medium term.