Rice

GVP $194 million est., down 30% year-on-year.
Total paddy rice production reached 474 thousand tonnes, down 23% year-on-year.
Exceptional crop yields, with average exceeding 11 tonnes/ha

The 2024-25 season was a challenging one for rice growers, with lower water inflows and storage levels leading to a reduction in rice plantings and lower production. On the positive side, optimal growing conditions in the Southern NSW rice growing region resulted in strong yields being reported with record individual crop yield achieved. In season flooding in the Northern Rivers was seen as beneficial for providing crop moisture, while improved varietal selection helped to mitigate the effects of rice blast in the region. Californian production increased with improved seasonal conditions, which has increased short and medium grain supply into key NSW export markets, weighing down prices. GVP was recorded at $194 million, a decline of 30% on the season prior.

Production

Rice Production & Water Allocations Chart ^m

Murray-Murrumbidgee GS Allocations (RHS)
Rice Production ('000 tonnes)

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Source: ABARES (2025) , DCCEEW (2025) , DCCEEW (2025)

Rice plantings were down 24% year on year to 43 thousand hectares driven by lower water inflows particularly in the latter parts of 2023.³ The total available water declined by 21% to approximately 2,570 Gigalitres (GL) of General Security (GS) water across the Murray and Murrumbidgee regulated river water sources, with allocations of 84% and 61% in October respectively. ⁷⁰ The decline in available water impacted on planted area in the Southern NSW rice growing region which declined by 25% year-on-year owing to the irrigation dependency of the production systems of this region.³

Optimal growing conditions were generally experienced throughout the season. This included, adequate overnight minimum temperatures through the sensitive microspore crop development phase, and a warm to hot finish which brought the crop in earlier than normal.²⁰⁰ This set the crop up for a robust average yield of 11.01 tonnes/ha, and only the third time the NSW crop has exceeded the 11 tonnes/ha benchmark. Exceptional farm level yields above 14 tonnes/ha were reported regularly²⁰⁰ along with expectations of a potential world record individual crop yield of 17.3 tonne/ha.¹⁵⁸ The increased yields helped to bolster total production levels at 474 thousand tonnes, 5% above the 10-year average levels.³

The Northern Rivers rice growing region had a dry start to the season, however the rice crops were one of the few agricultural beneficiaries of significant rainfall received from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which provided the rice crops much needed moisture. The fungal disease rice blast, was detected for a second year in the Northern Rivers, however improved management practices and varietal selection, including substitution of Topaz for the Tachiminori variety, helped to lessen the impact of the disease.¹⁷⁰

Macroeconomic and Price

The final paddy price dropped 6% year-on-year to $406 in 2024-25 (relating to the crop harvested in early 2024) down from $430/tonne in 2023-24. The fall in price was attributed primarily to lower mill-out rates. These rates were at the lowest level of the past five season and limited the amount of grain that could be placed into premium markets, and as a result weighed down the pool price. A sharp decline in international tender prices on the back of increased supply from the Northern Hemisphere was also cited a key reason for the lower paddy pricing. ¹⁵⁸

Short-medium grain rice production in the US, Australia’s main export competitor, dropped by 22% in 2024-25. Despite the fall, production was still 59% higher than the heavily drought impacted 2022-23 FY.¹⁷⁸ The last two seasons have helped to stabilise US medium grain rice supply and rebuild stocks. In turn, the US lifted its exports to the highest levels in five years, while also importing less. As a result, US short-medium grain farm gate prices fell 38% from the recent drought induced price peak.¹⁷⁸

US short-medium grain exports increased by 7% in 2024-25, with the Middle East accounting for most of this increase. The Middle East is also a key market for Australian rice.¹⁸⁰ The increased US supply of short-medium grain rice and lift in exports over the past two financial years has underpinned a steep correction in US medium grain export prices. While US and Australian export prices often diverge, pricing parity over the course of 2024-25 was much closer than it has been since late 2021. ⁸⁷ ¹⁵⁵ The fall in US prices has also been reflected in Australian rice export prices which trended slightly lower during the financial year, reinforced by lower tender pricing offered by trading partners.¹⁵⁵

Rice International Export Prices ^q

Thailand, 5% Broken - Long Grain
US No. 2, 4% Broken - Long Grain
US California Medium Grain (FOB mill)
Australian Rice Export Price (Cost & Freight)

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Source: FAO (2025) , FAO (2025) , SP Global (2025)

Trade

Rice Trade ^aj

Export value
Import value
Export Average Value
Import Average Value

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Source: SP Global (2025)

The crop harvested in 2025 in Southern NSW crop is the last crop subject to the exclusive statutory export arrangements (known as 'rice vesting') held by SunRice. The Northern Rivers NSW rice growing region was excluded from rice vesting for the 2025 crop. However the Northern River regions production capacity is still relatively small in contrast to the Southern NSW, and it is not expected that much if any rice was exported from the region.

Australian rice export values rose by a modest 1% year-on-year to $363 million. A 5% increase in volumes to 251 thousand tonnes was partially offset by lower export prices. The value of rice exports was 41% above the 10-year average levels, as rice supply allowed for sufficient exportable surplus to meet international market demand.¹⁵⁵

Lower mill-out rates in 2024-25 were the key factor driving lower pricing for the Australian crop as some grain was not able to be placed into premium markets. The large Californian short-medium grain crop over the past two seasons provided another headwind, increasing direct competition with Australian rice in key markets and resulted in lower tender pricing by importers. A slightly lower Australian Dollar provided some support to USD denominated exports.¹⁵⁹

Meanwhile, Australian rice imports rose 6% in 2024-25 in value terms to a new record of $410 million, with the top 3 origins being Thailand, India and Vietnam. ¹⁵⁵ Imports of milled rice into Australia accounted for approximately half of Australia’s domestic rice supply in 2024-25. Imports mainly focus on supply of long grain and specialty varieties which are not grown at scale domestically. During low production years, imports also act as a buffer to supplement domestic production.

Outlook

Dry conditions in Southern NSW have further reduced inflows into key storages including Hume, Dartmouth, Blowering and Burrinjuck dams, which are approximately 34% lower than the year before and sitting between 56% and 67% of capacity at the time of writing.¹⁹⁶ Opening General Security total available water allocations (including carryover) in the Murray and Murrumbidgee regulated water sources were at the lowest levels since 2019-20.⁷⁰

The availability of water is expected to further constrain rice production in 2025-26, unless significant inflows eventuate to lift water allocations prior to sowing. The forecast is for rice production to fall in line with water availability, with production currently forecast to further decline by 35% year on year.⁴

The recently announced US reciprocal tariffs (10% on most Australian goods) are not expected to have a significant direct impact on Australian rice exports, with the US not being a major export destination. However, the tariffs will have an indirect impact on global rice trade flows with the US accounting for 4% of total global rice trade in 2024-25.¹⁸⁰

US short and medium grain exports are forecast to increase in 2025-26, with larger quantities expected to go to Japan, South Korea and Israel. Recently negotiated trade deals are likely to support rising US rice exports to some of these countries.¹⁸² With that in mind, it’s likely that importers will favour California rice over NSW rice, resulting in downside risk to final prices. SunRice price guidance for the 2025-26 crop is in the range of $380 to $450 tonne with processing overheads and global medium grain supply expected to act as constraints on prices. Countering this, lower domestic supply and forecast weakness in the Australian Dollar are expected to act as a buffer.¹⁶⁰