Wheat

GVP record level of $4.3 billion est., up 43% year-on-year
12.9 million tonne crop was the second highest on record
Exports valued at $1.9 billion, with 63% sent to South East Asia

Production rebounded sharply from the year prior to reach near record production levels, second only to 2020-21. Despite an improvement in seasonal conditions and strong average yields, weather factors still played an important role regionally with frost impacts and late rainfall causing some yield and quality downgrades. Wheat prices were down on the highs of recent years. However, prices remained relatively resilient particularly in light of the ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions over the year. GVP is estimated at a new record high of $4.3 billion which is 43% higher year-on-year.⁷⁶

Production

Wheat production rebounded from a modest crop the year prior to reach near record production levels of 12.9 million tonnes.³ The result sees the 2024-25 crop as the second largest on record, up 82% on the year prior. Driving the result were large plantings of 3.9 million hectares and exceptional average yields of 3.3 tonnes/hectare, 40% higher than the 10-year average.³

Rainfall following the previous years dry finish, was mostly average to above average from November 2023 leading into the 2024-25 crop for most of the cropping regions of NSW.⁵¹ A widespread seasonal break during April led to average to above average root zone soil moisture for most of the NSW cropping belt, promoting timely sowing and an expanded planted area.⁵²

In crop rainfall was generally sufficient, however Southern regions, and to a lesser degree parts of the Central West experienced below average rainfall.⁵¹ Northern and Central regions had a particularly soft season resulting in some exceptional yields. Late harvest rainfall at the end of November/early December affected some crops leading to a higher proportion of lower specification making its way into the system. However, protein levels in Northern NSW were reportedly still ample.¹⁵⁰ Meanwhile, late spring frosts and heavy rainfall during harvest in southern NSW led to some yield loss and quality downgrades, particularly affecting grain protein levels. As a result, a larger proportion of the crop was classified as Australian Standard White (ASW), a lower-protein wheat grade.¹²

Price

Prices remained relatively subdued over the majority of the marketing season, with the main feature being a lack of pricing volatility. Prices across most quality grades steadily declined over the course of the year, with average prices down between 6% and 17% on the average price the year prior, depending on grade and delivery location. Prices generally traded within a relatively tight band, with APW port pricing (Melbourne) ranging between $350/tonne and $390/tonne. This price stability follows the earlier extreme wheat price volatility (and elevated pricing) resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.⁷⁴

Wheat prices were rangebound for a range of factors. Providing price support was a significant drop in Russian wheat production and exports which have displaced substantial amounts of Australian wheat over the last 2 years.¹⁹⁴ China’s share of NSW wheat exports have fallen from 26% in 2022-23 to 7% in 2024-25.¹⁵⁵ Offsetting this was downward pressure created from record global wheat production which outpaced global growth in consumption.¹⁹⁴ As a result, export prices generally trended in a similar pattern with any upside kept in-check under the weight of the record global production and aggressive export pricing.

International Wheat Export Price Indicators

Australia, Wheat (ASW), USD/tonne
Black Sea, Wheat (milling, 12.5%), USD/tonne
Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter), USD/tonne

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: FAO (2025)

Macroeconomic Conditions

Global Wheat Supply Demand and Stocks

Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: USDA (2025)

Moderating inflation and input costs, combined with increased production helped improve growers’ margins compared to the previous year. Some costs such as fuel declined, while other major costs such as chemical and fertilizer remained stable relative to the year prior.⁴

Global wheat production set a new record in 2024-25 for the fifth consecutive year, reaching an estimated 801 million tonnes. Australia was the largest contributor to the increase in global production in volume terms, while Canada, Kazakhstan, China and the US were among the other major wheat producing nations to see production increase also. This was partially offset by significant decline in production from Russia of approximately 9.9 million tonnes which compounded the 13.5 million tonne decline from the European Union.¹⁹⁴ This brought Australian wheat export prices broadly back in line with US and Russian export prices in USD terms.⁸⁷

Global consumption remained stable year on year, while global ending stocks continued to decline from their peak of around 297 million tonnes in 2019-20, and now sit 12% lower after 5 years.¹⁹⁴

The Australian dollar remained relatively weak against the US dollar, which provided a competitive edge for Australian wheat in international markets. This currency advantage partially offset the impact of lower global prices, helping support higher export volumes.¹⁴⁷

Trade

NSW wheat exports increased 71% year-on-year to $1.9 billion, boosted in line with increased production and higher exportable surplus.¹⁵⁵ While NSW 2024-25 exports were 46% higher than the 10-year average in value terms, the result was 35% and 43% lower than the 2022 and 2023 financial years respectively when wheat supply prices surged during the early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The increased global supply diminished Australian wheat pricing power in export markets. Combined with an increase in lower grades and overall protein levels led to average NSW wheat export prices declining on the year prior.¹⁵⁵

Increased export demand and activity emanated mainly from key South East Asian nations including Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia with exports increasing 136% year-on-year and these five markets accounting for 62% of NSW wheat exports by value.¹⁵⁵ This has been offset by a large decline in demand from China, with exports declining 86% from their peak in 2022-23 when China made up 27% market share of NSW wheat exports. Since 2021, Australia has been the largest supplier of wheat to China with exports surging while exports from competitors declined. Australian export volumes have since normalised levels recently in parallel with a reduction in Chinese total imports, and therefore maintains a significant market share.¹⁷⁵ ¹⁹⁴

NSW wheat exports have limited exposure to the US and therefore any direct impacts from US tariffs are expected to be negligible. However, NSW is a key processor of wheat gluten, with $273 million of exports in 2024-25 with the US representing a 76% market share.¹⁵⁵ Australia accounted for approximately 48% of US wheat gluten imports between 2022 and 2024, and given the tariff applied to Australian exports is lower than most other trading partners, the main challenge will be maintaining competitiveness with US domestic processors.¹⁷⁵

Outlook

Wheat production is expected to fall moderately in the 2025-26 year owing to a small reduction in plantings combined with lower average yield expectations.³ These expectations reflect the dry conditions in southern NSW that have been impacted by limited soil moisture, average to below average in crop rainfall and delayed crop establishment.⁵¹⁵²

Conversely, northern NSW has benefited from timely rainfall, placing crops in a strong position heading into spring. The spring outlook suggests a 60–80% chance of above-average rainfall across NSW cropping regions, which could support late-season growth and yield recovery.³⁵³ National wheat production is forecast to decline marginally with lower production in NSW forecast to be partially offset by a return to average production levels in Victoria and South Australia, which will assist in bringing interjurisdictional pricing into more alignment.³

Global wheat production and consumption are both expected to hit new record high levels in 2025-26, however the balance sheet will remain tight with the global stocks to use ratio remaining steady.¹⁸¹ Supply from the European Union in particular is forecast to rise by 13%, while production in India is forecast to lift by 4%, which could add to price weakness.¹⁸¹