Barley

GVP $500 million est. Down 20% year-on-year.
Production was 1.9 million tonnes, down 16%.
NSW exports were $51 million, down 6%.

NSW gross value of production was estimated to be $500 million in 2023-24, down 20% year-on-year. Drier conditions hurt yields as production dipped below 2 million tonnes. Barley prices eased over the year with ample world feedgrain supply, while premiums narrowed for malting barley. Higher production is forecast for 2024-25, up to 2.8 million tonnes.

Production

Barley production in NSW fell to 1.9 million tonnes in 2023-24 , down 16% on year-ago levels.³ Production was 12% below the decade average of 2.2 million tonnes however, remained nearly twice as large as average NSW production during the 2018-2020 drought. NSW accounted for 17% of Australian barley production.³ Western Australia was the largest barley-producing state at 3.7 million tonnes, followed by Victoria (2.8 million tonnes) and South Australia (2.1 million tonnes).

While the area planted to barley increased 3% to 800,000 hectares, yields were lower on average, with dry conditions throughout spring in the north of the state. Conditions were largely favourable in southern NSW with good soil moisture profiles at planting carrying crops through. The area planted remained below the 10-year average for NSW, with the bumper years of 2020-21 and 2021-22 lifting the average to 933,000 hectares.

Barley yields across NSW were down on last year to 2.4 tonnes/ha over the state.³ This was the lowest since the drought-ravaged 2019-20 crop, which yielded 1.03 tonnes/ha. The statewide yield in NSW was higher than only Western Australia, which was 2.3 tonnes/ha. Yields for Australia were 2.5 tonnes/ha. On the malting side, there were early estimates that 50% of all the barley grown in southern NSW and Victoria met malting specifications.

The estimated value of production for NSW was $500 million, a 20% fall compared to 2022-23. Australian barley GVP was 26% lower to $3.6 billion, though 2022-23 was a record year for Australia. Australian GVP was still 15% higher than the decade average of $3.1 billion.

Price

Barley prices ended the year softer, with Port Kembla F1 barley ranging between $292/tonne in March 2024 to $378/tonne in October 2023.⁶³ The average price for the financial year was $330/tonne, down from $340/tonne in 2022-23. Higher world coarse grain production put downward pressure on feedgrain prices, with French barley prices down 24% to US$223/tonne and US corn prices down 32% to US$205/tonne compared to the previous financial year.

Despite Australian cattle prices easing over the second half of 2023, feedgrain demand was strong due to the record number of cattle on feed. This helped to cushion the fall in domestic barley prices. Premiums for malting barley narrowed in 2023-24, as malting barley in Melbourne averaged $409/tonne for the year, a $18/t premium over corresponding feed barley. This premium was down from $29/tonne over the 2022-23.

Barley Prices

F1 Barley - Port Kembla
F1 Barley - Melbourne
Malting Barley - Melbourne

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Export prices for malt barley averaged $419/tonne over 2023-24, down 19% on the previous year. Netherlands was the major buyer of malt barley from NSW.

Trade and Macroeconomic Conditions

In August 2023 China announced it would remove the 80.5 percent anti-dumping and countervailing duties on barley, bringing the dispute with Australia to a close. This made Australian barley competitive in the Chinese market again, and Australian exports reached $3.3 billion, down just 0.4% over 2022-23. Exports to China increased from zero to $2.3 billion, and 70% of total exports, highlighting the attractiveness of this market to exporters. The increased supply of malting barley was shown in the export data, with barley for malt rising 180% to $1.2 billion.

While a significant producer, NSW exports are lower than other states, with a value of $51 million in 2023-24. This was 6% below year-ago levels. Barley for malt accounted for 40% of the total barley exports from NSW. Western Australia exports were $1.78 billion by comparison and WA is the major exporter to China.

Despite the ending of import tariffs in China, Japan and the Netherlands were the major export destinations for NSW barley, with values of $22.8 million and $14.5 million respectively. China was the third-largest export destination with a value of $2.2 million in 2023-24. Netherlands was the largest buyer of barley for malt.

Domestic barley consumption has increased this year with record numbers of cattle on feed in NSW and Queensland. Feedlot numbers reached record levels in March 2024 with the total cattle on feed in Australia reaching 1.35 million head.

Value of NSW Barley Exports

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Volume of NSW Barley Exports

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Outlook

NSW barley production is expected to increase in 2024-25, with current forecasts at 2.8 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions across NSW have been generally excellent, with higher yields forecast, however a dry September and frosts in southern NSW have dampened expectations. There are reports of some southern growers cutting crops for hay.

DPIRD Initiatives in Focus

Speedy Wombats across NSW!

The Climate Digital Agriculture team has designed a circuit board and software to enable the collection and transmission of weather station and soil sensor data for real-time analysis. Called the Wombat, the technology enhances the capacity to monitor seasonal conditions and drought forecasting.

The Climate Digital Agriculture team was asked to install weather stations and soil monitoring sensors in remote NSW to enhance seasonal conditions monitoring and drought forecasting. The team designed a custom circuit board - the Wombat, and developed the software to collect and transmit the data for real-time analysis. The boards are manufactured in NSW making them a fully home-grown research solution for remote data collection.

To date over 70 Wombats have been deployed across NSW sending 1.85 million messages over the last 13 months. Wombats can be remotely managed, are rugged, and serviceable by farmers if problems arise. Each Wombat can manage up to 10 attached sensors and sends data via the 4G LTE network. Other boards we've designed and built include the Kangaroo, and we are currently developing the Bettong, a new low powered module for water monitoring.