Major Reports
Summary Report
(PDF, 41425.92 KB)
Published March 2024. Several models were subsequently developed which are not included in this report (biting midge, cattle tick, Fusarium wilt and Xylella).
Methodology Report
(PDF, 19151.44 KB)
Published March 2024.
Results Reports
Horticulture and Viticulture
Broadacre Cropping
- Dryland barley (PDF, 3959.62 KB)
- Dryland canola (PDF, 4181.11 KB)
- Chickpea (PDF, 4194.47 KB)
- Irrigated cotton (PDF, 5058.47 KB)
- Irrigated lucerne (PDF, 3221.61 KB)
- Lupin (PDF, 4142.97 KB)
- Maize (PDF, 5299.68 KB)
- Irrigated rice (PDF, 3191.29 KB)
- Dryland wheat (PDF, 4146.38 KB)
- Irrigated wheat (PDF, 5190.95 KB)
Forestry
- Radiata pine — Pinus radiata (PDF, 4512.87 KB)
Extensive Livestock
- Beef cattle — Bos taurus (PDF, 2752.12 KB)
- Sheep — Merino (PDF, 2971.39 KB)
- High rainfall zone grazing system -- high stocking rate (PDF, 2142.25 KB)
- Mixed cropping zone grazing system — moderate stocking rate (PDF, 2688.93 KB)
- Rangeland grazing system -- low stocking rate (PDF, 2854.76 KB)
Marine Fisheries
- Bonito — Sarda australis (PDF, 1791.36 KB)
- Dolphinfish — Coryphaena hippurus (PDF, 1810.69 KB)
- Kingfish — Seriola lalandi (PDF, 1830.53 KB)
- Spanish mackerel — Scomberomorus commerson (PDF, 1796.42 KB)
- Spotted mackerel — Scomberomorus munroi (PDF, 1782.59 KB)
Biosecurity Risks
- Buffalo fly — Haematobia irritans exigua (PDF, 5254.46 KB)
- Biting midge — Culicoides brevitarsis (PDF, 3922.19 KB)
- Cattle tick — Rhipicephalus australis (PDF, 4330.77 KB)
- Fusarium wilt — Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. vasinfectum (PDF, 4809.5 KB)
- Oriental fruit fly — Bactrocera dorsalis (PDF, 6569.55 KB)
- Parthenium weed — Parthenium hysterophorus (PDF, 5182.77 KB)
- Queensland fruit fly — Bactrocera tryoni (PDF, 5683.6 KB)
- Sclerotinia stem rot — Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (PDF, 5360.64 KB)
- Serpentine leafminer — Liriomyza huidobrensis (PDF, 4093.38 KB)
- Serrated tussock (PDF, 4639.54 KB)
- Verticillium wilt — Verticillium dahliae (PDF, 6817.07 KB)
- Wheat stem rust — Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (PDF, 4281.33 KB)
- Wheat stripe rust — Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (PDF, 4599.95 KB)
- Xylella — Xylella fastidiosa (PDF, 3339.84 KB)
Factsheets
Horticulture and Viticulture
- Almond — Nonpareil (PDF, 407.12 KB)
- Blueberry — Southern Highbush (PDF, 797.35 KB)
- Cherry — Lapin (PDF, 2138.15 KB)
- Citrus — Navel oranges (PDF, 350.71 KB)
- Macadamia (PDF, 297.97 KB)
- Walnut — Chandler (PDF, 383.57 KB)
- Wine grapes — Chardonnay (cool region) (PDF, 4235.22 KB)
- Wine grapes — Chardonnay (warm region) (PDF, 5817.27 KB)
Broadacre Cropping
- Dryland barley (PDF, 6065.33 KB)
- Dryland canola (PDF, 6483.58 KB)
- Chickpea (PDF, 11643.12 KB)
- Irrigated cotton (PDF, 9165.58 KB)
- Irrigated lucerne (PDF, 424.25 KB)
- Lupin (PDF, 16011.23 KB)
- Irrigated maize (PDF, 6521.72 KB)
- Irrigated rice (PDF, 9973.63 KB)
- Dryland and irrigated wheat (PDF, 6108.89 KB)
Forestry
Forestry
- Radiata pine — Pinus radiata (PDF, 429.85 KB)
Extensive Livestock
- Beef cattle — Bos taurus (PDF, 392.75 KB)
- Sheep — Merino (PDF, 2904.11 KB)
- High rainfall zone grazing system — high stocking rate (PDF, 2404.4 KB)
- Mixed cropping zone grazing system — moderate stocking rate (PDF, 1406 KB)
- Rangeland grazing system — low stocking rate (PDF, 1333.99 KB)
Marine Fisheries
- Bonito — Sarda australis (PDF, 636.35 KB)
- Dolphinfish — Coryphaena hippurus (PDF, 648.77 KB)
- Kingfish — Seriola lalandi (PDF, 852.91 KB)
- Spanish mackerel — Scomberomorus commerson (PDF, 1080.97 KB)
- Spotted mackerel — Scomberomorus munroi (PDF, 636.23 KB)
Biosecurity Risks
- Biting midge — Culicoides brevitarsis (PDF, 261.64 KB)
- Buffalo fly — Haematobia irritans exigua (PDF, 351.41 KB)
- Cattle tick — Rhipicephalus australis (PDF, 729.24 KB)
- Fusarium wilt — Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. vasinfectum (PDF, 1985.53 KB)
- Oriental fruit fly — Bactrocera dorsalis (PDF, 362.26 KB)
- Parthenium weed — Parthenium hysterophorus (PDF, 356.78 KB)
- Queensland fruit fly — Bactrocera tryoni (PDF, 262.96 KB)
- Sclerotinia stem rot — Sclerotinia sclerotiorum (PDF, 346.45 KB)
- Serpentine leafminer — Liriomyza huidobrensis (PDF, 381.81 KB)
- Serrated tussock — Nassella trichotoma (PDF, 489.67 KB)
- Verticillium wilt — Verticillium dahliae (PDF, 293.66 KB)
- Wheat stem rust — Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (PDF, 351.69 KB)
- Wheat stripe rust — Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (PDF, 2071.45 KB)
- Xylella — Xylella fastidiosa (PDF, 714.26 KB)
Data release
The data underpinning each assessment is available online through the NSW Sharing and Enabling Environmental Data (SEED) portal, via the Climate Vulnerability Assessment page.
Journal articles
2026
- Kelley, J., Ellis, B., Lawson, J., Pardoe, J., Allingham, D. and Falivene, S. Climate change impact assessment for Navel oranges: revealing future challenges and opportunities for the industry in New South Wales, Australia. Acta Hortic. 1448, 447-456 (2026). https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2026.1448.56
- Kirkby, K.A., Kelley, J.M., Ellis, B. et al. Assessing the impact of climate change on verticillium wilt and the implications for cotton production in Australia. Int J Biometeorol 70, 57 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-025-03100-5
- Lawson, J.R., Darbyshire, R., Pardoe, J., Allingham, D., Ellis, B., Young, R., Kelley, J.M. Comprehensive, regional-scale climate impact assessments for primary industries - a framework for practitioners. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 120, 108477 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108477
2023
- Champion, C., Lawson, J.R., Pardoe, J. et al. Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change. Climatic Change 176, 99 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03577-2
- Johnson, S.B., Kelley, J.M., Ellis, B., Lawson, J., Davidson, B. and Dixon, N. (2023). Where could it be now? The vulnerability of New South Wales to parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus) invasion. Proceedings of the 22nd Biennial NSW weeds conference. (Weed Society of New South Wales, Dubbo).
2022
- Darbyshire, R.O., Johnson, S.B., Anwar, M.R. et al. Climate change and Australia’s primary industries: factors hampering an effective and coordinated response. Int J Biometeorol 66, 1045–1056 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02265-7
- Johnson, S B., Kelley, J M., Ellis, B., Lawson, J. What is your state of vulnerability to climate change? Biosecurity and weed threats to New South Wales primary industries. 22nd Australasian Weeds Conference, Adelaide, SA, Australia, 25-29 September 2022.
Podcasts
- The Business of Dairy podcast
- 'Cherry Picked' podcast
Videos
- AdaptNSW Forum
- 6th Paddock to Planning Forum
Articles
- Australian Berry Journal article, "How will climate change affect blueberries in NSW?" (Berries Australia)
- Australian Citrus News article, "Learning more about albedo breakdown" (Citrus Australia)
- Journal for Irrigation Professionals article, "What’s in store for rice growers and the irrigation industry in a changing climate?" (Irrigation Australia)
- SEED case study, "A faster way to publish your Data on SEED" (DCCEEW)
- SEED case study, "How does data help shape what we grow in the future?" (DCCEEW)
- Spotlight article, "How will climate impact disease?" (CRDC)
Awards
- National winner, "Climate Change & Resilience" category, 2026 Planning Institute of Australia National Awards for Planning Excellence
- Winner, "Climate Change & Resilience" category, 2025 Planning Institute of Australia NSW Awards for Planning Excellence
- Finalist, "Delivering innovative economic opportunities for the community" category, 2025 NSW Premier's Awards
- Winner, Agriculture Minister's Award, 2025 NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development Awards
- Winner, OneDPI Award, 2021 NSW Department of Primary Industries Awards