Project Framework
Climate Vulnerability Assessment framework
The Climate Vulnerability Assessment was designed to deliver a consistent, state-wide understanding of climate change impacts on NSW primary industries, providing strategic information for policymakers and industry. This information will help industries to understand the challenges ahead, prepare for and adapt to any identified climate vulnerabilities, and to take advantage of future opportunities in NSW. The assessment provides details of the future impacts of climate change on all stages of production for the commodities and biosecurity risks assessed.
A framework for the assessment was developed which outlines a rigorous, flexible and transparent process for assessing vulnerability to climate change. To achieve these aims, climate impact models were developed using a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) modelling approach, which allowed for knowledge obtained from scientific literature, expert focus groups and various other sources to be combined in a consistent way across all commodities and biosecurity risks.
The MCA models were developed through structured workshops, engaging experts who specialise in specific primary industry commodities or biosecurity risks. They identified the climatic conditions which matter most for each commodity or biosecurity risk and defined the thresholds that underpin each model.
Image caption: Climate suitability was assessed using an MCA model of each commodity or biosecurity risk with historical and future projection climate data.
The MCA models are not yield estimating models but climate suitability models. Climate suitability is defined as the extent to which climatic conditions satisfy the requirements of plant or animal growth in the absence of other limiting factors. Each MCA model provides an assessment of climate suitability (ranging from unsuitable to highly suitable). Climate suitability was calculated for both historical (baseline) conditions and for future projections of climate, to understand how climate suitability could be affected by climate change.
The assessment’s results were obtained by combining the MCA model for the commodity or biosecurity risk with the historical and future projections climate data to produce a suitability score (from 0 to 1) indicating how favourable the climate is for that commodity or biosecurity risk across NSW.
Climate projections used in this assessment
The Climate Vulnerability Assessment used the CSIRO Climate Change in Australia: Application Ready Data. The dataset
- contained 8 CMIP5 global climate models (only 5 were used for marine fisheries due to a lack of availability of marine-related climate variables)
- was run with 2 future emissions scenarios: an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) and a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5)
- was downscaled to 0.05 degrees resolution (approximately 5-km cells)
Importantly, the assessments all used the same timeframes:
- historical baseline period: 1981-2010 (mid-point of 1995)
- future projection period: 2036-2065 (mid-point of 2050)
Expert elicitation
Expert knowledge was an essential component of the Climate Vulnerability Assessment. Initial literature reviews identified that there were large gaps in the published knowledge across all commodities and biosecurity risks. To fill these knowledge gaps, focus groups were convened (one for each commodity or biosecurity risk) to provide the missing information about the effects of climatic conditions on the commodity or biosecurity risk. Focus group members were drawn from academia, industry and government, supported by specialists from within the Department, each chosen for their deep expertise and knowledge about the commodity or biosecurity risk.
For more information on the experts, please see Expert Collaboration.
Details of the project’s methodology
For details about the methods and data used in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment, please refer to the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Report (PDF, 19151.44 KB).
Publications
Lawson, J.R., Darbyshire, R., Pardoe, J., Allingham, D., Ellis, B., Young, R., Kelley, J.M. Comprehensive, regional-scale climate impact assessments for primary industries - a framework for practitioners. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 120, 108477 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108477