Horticulture and Viticulture

Horticulture is NSW's third-largest primary industry, with a gross production value of around $3.5 billion in 2024-2025. NSW produces 86% of Australia's blueberries, 52% of Australia's oranges and 42% of Australia's macadamias. Wine grapes and cherries produced in NSW also contribute over a quarter of Australia's production of these commodities. In 2024-25, wine exports from NSW were valued at around $476 million.

Climate Vulnerability Assessments

For horticulture and viticulture, the selected commodities were:

Visit each page for more information about the commodity and to view its factsheet and results report.

Results

The Climate Vulnerability Assessment assessed the historical and future climate suitability for each commodity across NSW. These assessments considered changes in climate suitability between the historical (1981-2010) and future projection (2036-2065) periods, reported separately for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

Maps of historical and future climate suitability for horticultural commodities were produced. These help us to identify where in NSW horticulture production is likely to thrive or else be limited by future climatic conditions. The maps are provided in the results reports for each commodity, and these reports also provide an interpretation of the drivers behind changes in climate suitability.

Care should be taken when interpreting these results. The Climate Vulnerability Assessment is intended to highlight potential changes in future climate suitability at industry and regional levels. It is not designed to be interpreted at the scale of individual holdings.

For more information on assumptions and exclusions for individual models, please refer to the results reports. For a detailed description of the methodology, modelling approach and data used in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment, please refer to the methodology summary page.

Data release

The data underpinning each assessment is available online through the NSW Sharing and Enabling Environmental Data (SEED) portal, via the Climate Vulnerability Assessment page.