Murray Local Land Services

Conditions across the Murray region remain mixed, with early signs of recovery in some areas.

• Year-to-date rainfall has been close to median across much of the region, with above average rainfall recorded during May. This has supported some improvement in seasonal conditions and increased producer confidence.
• Despite this recent rainfall, the region continues to manage the impacts of a prolonged drought event, limiting the extent and speed of recovery.
• Large parts in the west of the region remain in the NSW-CDI Drought Affected category.
• Continued follow up rainfall across the region will be critical to drive further improvements in the indicators and sustain areas currently in Recovery.

Click on the scroll bar below the map to compare with previous months.

The most likely outcome from DPIRD’s Drought Forecast is for much of the region to be in the Drought Affected category at the end of August 2026 (issued 31 May 2026).

• Areas that have recently seen an easing of conditions are most likely to transition back from the Recovery category to the Drought Affected category at the end of August.
• Further improvements are likely in central, eastern and western parts of the region, with a transition to the Non-Drought category.
• There is moderate to high model agreement and low to high past accuracy for this forecast period.

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

Plant greenness levels are highly variable across the region.

• Many parts of the region are recording near average to above average values for the March to May period. Below average values remain for some areas.
• The full influence of rainfall in late May will be available in the next Update.
• Note that some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) are water bodies.

The NDVI anomaly is a useful measure of vegetation density and plant health. It estimates the amount of green vegetation there is in the landscape compared to what is expected at the given time of year, against the baseline period 1987 - 2020.

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Individual Drought Indicators

Drought indicators remain variable across the region, with some improvement observed.

• Recent rainfall has continued to have a positive effect on the drought indicators at some locations (e.g., Holbrook, Khancoban and Finley) transitioning to NSW-CDI Recovery category.
• Continued follow up rainfall across the region will be critical to drive further improvements in the indicators and on ground conditions.

Observing the trends of the underlying drought indicators of Soil Water, Plant Growth and Rainfall is useful in tracking long-term changes in conditions.

Find out more about the underlying drought indicators here: https://www.dpird.nsw.gov.au/climate_applications/interactive-drought-map/Learn-more/understanding-the-cdi-phases

To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.