North Coast Local Land Services

Conditions across the North Coast remain variable.

• Year-to-date rainfall has been well below median across much of the region, impacting on ground conditions.
• Large parts of the LLS region remain in the NSW-CDI Drought Affected category, as a result of the warmer and drier conditions experienced in early to mid-autumn.
• Above average rainfall during May has provided some short-term relief for areas in the north of the region.
• However, recent rainfall has impacted some agricultural industries, resulting in waterlogging of paddocks in lower areas, and orchard management issues for horticultural crops such as macadamias.
• Producers are closely monitoring conditions, particularly surface water and feed availability, as they adjust winter planning and management decisions for livestock feeding or fodder programs.

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The DPIRD Drought Forecast suggests that most of the region is likely to be in the NSW-CDI Drought Affected category at the end of August 2026 (issued 31 May 2026).

• Some areas (west of Grafton) are also likely to enter the more severe Drought category.
• The forecast is being driven by the increased chance of below median rainfall for the coming three months.
• There is moderate to high model agreement and moderate to high past accuracy for this forecast period.

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

Plant greenness levels remain above average across most of the region for the March to May period.

• There are localised areas across the region that are experiencing below average greenness, which have been influenced by warm temperatures, and below average rainfall.
• The full influence of rainfall in late May will be available in the next Update.
• Note that some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) are water bodies.

The NDVI anomaly is a useful measure of vegetation density and plant health. It estimates the amount of green vegetation there is in the landscape compared to what is expected at the given time of year, against the baseline period 1987 - 2020.

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Individual Drought Indicators

A drying trend continues for inland areas.

• The decline in one or more of the drought indicators is being observed across the region, due to below average rainfall over the past several months.
• While late autumn rainfall has slowed the recent decline in the underlying indications, further substantial rainfall is needed to trigger short-term recovery of the drought indicators.
• The underlying indicators at many locations are currently fluctuating between the Drought Affected and Recovery NSW-CDI categories (e.g., Grafton). This is being driven by small changes in the Rainfall Index. Further rainfall will support a sustained transition into the Recovery category.
• DPIRD continues to monitor this region closely.

Observing the trends of the underlying drought indicators of Soil Water, Plant Growth and Rainfall is useful in tracking long-term changes in conditions.

Find out more about the underlying drought indicators here: https://www.dpird.nsw.gov.au/climate_applications/interactive-drought-map/Learn-more/understanding-the-cdi-phases

To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal.