NSW outlook June to August 2026

(issued from the Bureau of Meteorology on 4 June 2026)

Rainfall Outlook

The rainfall outlook shows the likelihood of receiving above or below median rainfall during the forecast period.

• There is a below 20% to 55% chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median across NSW for the reporting period, depending on location.
• Outlooks based on the Bureau of Meteorology numerical model have a moderate (55% to above 75%) accuracy for the forecast period when compared to the historical record (1981 – 2018).

This outlook can shift rapidly as the Bureau of Meteorology updates the observed inputs to its numerical forecasting systems. You can explore the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks on their website.

Temperature Outlook

High likelihood of above median temperatures for most of NSW.

The temperature outlooks show the likelihood of above or below median temperatures during the forecast period.

• There is high likelihood (70% to above 80%) of above median maximum and minimum temperatures across NSW for the reporting period.
• Outlooks based on the Bureau of Meteorology numerical model have a moderate to high accuracy (55% to above 75%) for the forecast period when compared to the historical record (1981 – 2018).

This outlook can shift rapidly as the Bureau of Meteorology updates the observed inputs to its numerical forecasting systems. You can explore the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks on their website.