Central West Local Land Services

On-ground conditions eased across the region, following above average rainfall in May.

• May rainfall was above average for much of the region, improving production outlooks for winter cropping programs. The effects of recent rainfall on regions in an NSW-CDI drought category will become more evident over the next few weeks
• Rainfall has provided opportunities to sow later season crops and has likely increased confidence for areas where cereal or fodder crops were sown early.
• There are areas where pasture growth may be slowing and becoming dormant as cooler temperatures are experienced.
• On ground reports suggest that producers are cautiously optimistic entering winter; and continuing to monitor forecasts and outlooks.

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The most likely outcome from DPIRD’s Drought Forecast is  drought conditions are likely to continue at the end of August 2026 (issued 31 May 2026).

• Most of the region will likely be in the NSW-CDI Drought Affected category at the end of August 2026.
• Some areas in the south and southeast of the region are likely to transition to the Recovery or Non-Drought category.
• The forecast is being driven by long-term rainfall deficits, along with the increased chance of below median rainfall for the coming three months.
• There is low to high model agreement and low to moderate past accuracy for this forecast period.

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Plant greenness levels were below average for much of the region for the March to May period.

• There are localised areas in the south of the region that continue to experience above average greenness.
• The full influence of rainfall in late May will be available in the next Update.
• Some of the extremely negative NDVI areas (brown patches) are water bodies or from the influence of forestry operations.

The NDVI anomaly is a useful measure of vegetation density and plant health. It estimates the amount of green vegetation there is in the landscape compared to what is expected at the given time of year, against the baseline period 1987 - 2020.

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Individual Drought Indicators

Drought indicator values remain low across the region.

• May rainfall has been insufficient to drive any significant improvement in the underlying drought indicators at most locations.
• Across the region, further substantial rainfall is needed to trigger short-term recovery of the drought indicators.

Observing the trends of the underlying drought indicators of Soil Water, Plant Growth and Rainfall is useful in tracking long-term changes in conditions.

Find out more about the underlying drought indicators here: https://www.dpird.nsw.gov.au/climate_applications/interactive-drought-map/Learn-more/understanding-the-cdi-phases

To access a Drought History chart for your Parish, visit the Seasonal Conditions Information Portal