El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. The Relative NIÑO3.4 weekly value reported by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)  is currently +0.81°C (as of 7 June 2026).

Model agreement

• The figure below shows forecasts from international models for sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region for 9 overlapping 3-month periods (issued 19 May 2026). For more information on this figure visit the Columbia International Research Institute for Climate and Society website.
• All models are forecasting a strengthening of El Niño conditions over the coming three months (June to August 2026), with variations in magnitude and timing.
• The skill of the forecasts generally decreases the further in advance the forecast period.
• Note that the threshold used by the American meteorological agencies used to indicate a La Niña state is -0.5°C where the Bureau of Meteorology threshold is -0.8°C.

DPIRD’s advice is to continue to monitor conditions closely over the coming months and refer to the wider variety of indicators and thresholds used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to track ENSO and its impacts on seasonal climate in Australia