Updated 6 November 2025

Drought recovery, at any stage, presents challenges for producers. The natural variability of Australia’s rainfall causes a high degree of uncertainty and means that no two drought recoveries will be the same. The timing of seasonal conditions and weather events (including rainfall and other climatic or physical variables) are some of the factors that determine how a farm recovers from drought.

Recovery is the transition period between a drought event when production is limited and the farm returning to moderate to full production. The transition can be divided into three general stages: Early, Late and Full Recovery. The level and type of risks landholders manage can vary significantly in the three stages. The timing, strength and pace of climatic recovery is a critical factor for farm management, which together influence the level of physical production in the transition and ultimately financial recovery of the farm business.

The strength and pace of the climatic transition period can be tracked by drought indicators like the NSW Combined Drought Indicator (NSW-CDI) to build useful scenarios for management planning. The NSW-CDI monitors rainfall effectiveness by incorporating soil water and plant growth indicators.

Stages of drought recovery

Stage 1: Early Recovery

Timely rainfall totals result in an initial improvement in paddock conditions (e.g., pasture growth or sowing opportunities). Soil moisture levels improve but are not yet adequate to sustain production. The nature of recovery remains uncertain, and farm performance is highly dependent on follow-up rain. Further response is still needed, and decisions remain difficult. A “watch and monitor” approach that provides flexible options to reduce the risk of a ‘false recovery’ is recommended (e.g., modest re-stocking or dual-purpose cropping).

Stage 2: Late Recovery

Follow-up rain has occurred, and further improvement in on-ground conditions continues. Soil moisture levels guarantee a period of production, so the farm is less vulnerable to short term rainfall variability. The likelihood of full drought recovery has increased, but some risk of drought re-entry remains. Decisions are focused on rebuilding, though a strategy that monitors and prepares for drought re-entry is good practice.

Stage 3: Full Recovery

The farm has moved through early and late recovery stages and there has been a sustained period of adequate productivity. A key focus is optimising production and cash-flow in the seasons ahead, yet preparedness planning and monitoring for drought is needed to manage future risks to the farm.

Drought recovery scenarios

The time and rate of recovery can be different for each drought event. The transition from one stage to the next is not smooth. The following three examples show different types of drought recovery that have been experienced in the region over the past 40 years. The blue bars show the amount and pattern of rainfall that caused the NSW-CDI to transition from the Drought to the Non-Drought stage. The solid line shows how plant growth responded to the rainfall.

Rapid Drought Recovery

Example: Albury 1973

• Transition period: 5 months.
• Rainfall received: 447mm.

A rapid transition from drought to full recovery results from a period of effective rainfall that is well timed for pasture or crop growth. In this example at Albury, the transition to recovery took 5 months (blue bars). Early recovery commenced due to five consecutive months of effective rainfall from January to May 1973. Continued rainfall during the remainder of 1973 supported the transition from late to full recovery. The plant growth response to rain was fast during this time (black line). In this example, favourable timing of effective follow-up rainfall totals led to a rapid recovery.

Extended of Delayed Recovery

Example: Tenterfield 2005-2008

• Transition period: 32 months.
• Rainfall received: 1895mm.

Drought recovery can take much longer when rainfall totals are low, poorly timed, or ineffective for increasing agronomic capacity. The example at Tenterfield shows a long 32-month period of variable rainfall (blue bars) that led to false gains and irregular plant growth (black line). The increased consistency and higher effectiveness of the rainfall occurring in the 2007 spring and summer finally caused a transition to later stage drought recovery. The example highlights the importance of rainfall effectiveness. It shows that the rainfall amount and the time it falls have a significant influence on field conditions. Rainfall amount is important but is not the only driver of drought recovery

False Recovery

Example: Denman 1980-1982

• Transition period: 11 months.
• Rainfall received: 505mm.

Rainfall at Denman in the 11-month period from May 2002 (blue bars) was effective in triggering a pasture growth response and an early drought recovery by winter in 1981 (black line). Further rain in the spring maintained the transition to late recovery. Poor rainfall effectiveness in March 1982 and dry conditions during late autumn and winter of 1982 caused a rapid return to drought conditions. This is a false drought recovery. The example highlights the vulnerability during drought recovery and the complex interactions that can impact the effectiveness of rainfall on field conditions

Climate Forecasts, Global Climate Drivers and Drought Recovery

Australia’s rainfall is influenced by several global climate drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These drivers influence the likelihood of rainfall and the chance of drought recovery occurring. Generally, in NSW drought recovery is more likely if there is a strong La Niña and/or a negative IOD event, and less likely during a strong El Niño and/or positive IOD event. Other factors such as the monsoon, cyclones and intense east coast lows can also bring rainfall during recovery. Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can also act to enhance or slow a recovery.

This is why it is important to not solely rely on one climate driver (e.g. ENSO) when making a management decision. Instead, it is best to utilise output from modern climate models which bring together these multiple influences and have a general background understanding of each of the climate drivers to help make management decisions. DPIRD’s drought forecast is a source of information where the likelihood of different drought recovery scenarios can be obtained.

Managing the farm during drought recovery

While climate conditions and rainfall effectiveness are important considerations, management practices also have a critical influence on production and financial recovery. There are many practical options and decisions that need consideration during recovery.

The NSW Drought, Fire and Flood Recovery Guide discuss many of the factors and on-farm resources that need to be considered during recovery.

For help and assistance visit the NSW DroughtHub website.

Key messages

1) No two drought recoveries are the same.

2) Recovery can fail and is influenced by several climatic, weather and local farm factors.

3) The amount of rain does not always determine drought recovery; rainfall effectiveness is key.

4) It is important to continually monitor seasonal conditions, forecasts and the physical response of the farm during recovery.

5) Near real time drought monitoring and forecasts, including recovery scenarios, are freely available to farmers across NSW through the NSW State Seasonal Update and online drought mapping services.

Drought recovery is a time of vulnerability for farmers due to the ongoing risk of false recovery. A balanced approach is the best way to optimise decision making and reduce the risk of using seasonal rainfall accumulation alone when planning drought recovery.